The Korean Extortion Ploy Yet Again

by Herbert I. London
November 30, 2010 at 4:00 am

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/1702/korean-extortion

As Secretary of Defense Robert Gates noted, any question about North Korea has only one response: "I don't know." There is so little we know about this state with nuclear weapons; almost anything one says is therefore speculative.

The nuclear facility recently disclosed seems designed to be inflammatory: North Korea can increase its supply of weapons and use them as negotiating instruments. By any measure, the nuclear facility seems to be an extortion ploy.

As there is nothing of value in North Korea, and as the economy is non-existent and the government cannot supply basic necessities for its population, nuclear weapons – at least the threat of deployment – is most likely a negotiating wedge for foodstuff, oil and hard currency -- and possibly more nukes.

The Chinese government is complicit. China has the ability to clamp down on this backward kingdom, but does not. From a Chinese perspective, North Korea is an effective pressure-point on the United States and its allies in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan. What the stalemate with North Korea demonstrates is the relative ineffectiveness of U.S. diplomacy and the obvious fact that the U.S. is an unreliable ally -- perhaps even an untrustworthy ally.

What the U.S. cannot deliver – a stable east Asia – emerging Chinese military power in the region might. China is using North Korea as a tool to promote its regional dominance and, in the process, undermine U.S. influence.

This strategy has advantages for China at the moment, but it could backfire. If Japan uses North Korea's sabre rattling and Pyongyang's deadly artillery barrage on a South Korean island as a catalyst to dismantle Article 9 of its Constitution and starts producing nuclear weapons, China's military dominance could be challenged. Anti-Chinese sentiment in Japan should not be underestimated.

North Korean gamesmanship and Chinese cleverness are proceeding down a dangerous path in which escalation is quite plausible. The world is waiting to see how this situation will unfold, and the Iranian regime watches with intense interest. What the U.S. does in North Korea – or does not do – is regarded as a portent of the U.S. position on Iranian nuclear weapons as well.

In another unfolding chapter in this conflict, the United States and Seoul began joint naval maneuvers -- an unmistakable message that sufficient force exists in that neighborhood to counter North Korean aggression. Even in South Korea, known for its restraint, there is increasing pressure to respond to Kim Jung Il's unprovoked attacks. South Korean President Lee Myung-bak told Chinese emissaries that now is not the "right time" to resume disarmament discussions. President Lee bluntly added that Beijing should adopt "a more fair and responsible position" on Korean issues, and that North Korea "would pay a price" for further aggression.

U.S. Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the joint chiefs, said, "It is hard to know why China does not push harder. They clearly are interested in this – in the region not spinning out of control – so my sense is they try to control this guy, and I'm not sure he is controllable."

Of course this is one man's theory. There are others, including that China that benefits from the chaos by diminishing the U.S. role in the region and creating the impression with U.S. allies that only China can stabilize the unruly situation.

This is a scenario with dangerous implications: the world has seen it unfold before and, sadly, will probably see it unfold again.

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