Obama Administration "Caused Serious Damage to Israel's Deterrence toward Iran"
Ha'aretz Senior Defense Analyst Amos Harel, a regular on our "Gate" blog, just published his evaluation of Washington-Jerusalem relations. The key thought:
The Israeli leadership is taking a dangerous gamble here, that has to do with more than the repeated winding of the spring, exhausting security officials and, lately, pulling at the already fraying nerves of the Israeli public. This last series of publications has managed to unhinge the Obama administration as well – to which the Americans repaid us with a sharp statement made by the U.S. army chief Martin Dempsey this week, saying that the IDF can't destroy Iran's nuclear program, only, at most, delay it.
On the face of it, there isn't much news in Dempsey's comments. But the timing, wording, context (in a press conference, alongside Panetta) are what count here. Washington has stuck a proverbial pin in the Israeli balloon. Its message was clear: You better sit tight, the Iranian issue is out of your league. Dempsey's statement, thus caused serious damage to Israel's deterrence toward Iran, since leaders in Tehran now understand that Israel lacks the real possibility to disrupt their plans.
Whether Israel has the capacity or not remains the question. IDF Gen.(res.) Yitzhak Ben Yisrael rebutted Gen. Dempsey Aug. 16, contending that "The Americans know we can clobber Iran's nuclear sites like they can but I think Gen, Dempsey was referring to what happens after an Israeli strike on Iran." On paper, Israel has enough bunker-buster bombs and enough platforms to deliver them to destroy a great deal of Iran's dug-in enrichment capacity, even without the deployment of sabotage teams on the grounds. But it is not an easy exercise to fly 1,600 kilometers through hostile airspace, drop a series of bunker-busters directly into the crater left by the previous one, and get home.
A parallel question is: Why would Israel bluff? A year ago, Israeli threats helped push the U.S. and other Western nations to tighten sanctions on Iran. One could argue a year ago that there was some probability that sanctions might work. The probability now is vanishingly small. Dennis Ross, Obama's former chief Iran planner, warned in an interview today that the Israelis are not simply bluffing:
"Part of the motivation for being as public as they have been is to motivate the rest of world," Ross, who served as the top Obama White House Iran strategist from 2009 to the end of 2011, told Al-Monitor in an interview Tuesday.
"The second reason is to condition the rest of the world not to be surprised if or when they are going to act militarily," Ross said. "And to get the Israeli public ready as well."
That doesn't mean that they have made a decision. It's not about to happen tomorrow." Ross continued. "If it happens tomorrow, it's rather late in terms of getting the Israeli public ready. But I do think it means one cannot just dismiss it. Those who say it is just a bluff are misreading."
A careful reading of the transcript of Israeli Ambassador Michael Oren's talk before a Bloomberg conference yesterday shows that Israel is concerned not simply about Iranian bomb acquisition but the entire array of forces around it. Dempsey warned that Israel could only delay, but not destroy, Iran's nuclear weapons program. That, said Oren, was good enough for Israel. The situation was changing so quickly that a few years could mean a radically different environment:
One, two, three, four years are a long time in the Middle East -- look what's happened in the Middle East in the last year alone" in terms of political change, Oren said yesterday at a Bloomberg Government breakfast in Washington. "In our neighborhood, those are the rules of the game."
From the Israeli standpoint, a great deal that is happening on its borders may reflect Iranian maneuvering for a response to an Israeli strike. The Muslim Brotherhood move against the Egyptian military this week opens a threat in Gaza and Sinai, and it is noteworthy that Ambassador Oren referred to the terrorist organization Islamic Jihad as "owned and operated by Tehran." Lebanon has a new outbreak of sectarian violence, with the kidnapping of forty individuals (including Saudi and Turkish nationals) by Shi'ite militia. Iran, the US alleges, is organizing a militia in Syria, and the disposition of Syria's chemical weapons stockpiles represents an opportunity for Iran to acquire a WMD second strike capability out of Syria. This is a troublesome issue, as Oren observed, given that the chemical weapons are dispersed throughout the country and often close to civilian areas.
I stick by our basic conclusions of last Sunday's call: not just the timing of Iranian nuclear weapons development but the sudden instability around its borders make a compelling case for Israel to strike.
Comment on this item
by Khaled Abu Toameh
It is important to note that these cease-fire demands are not part of Hamas's or Islamic Jihad's overall strategy, namely to have Israel wiped off the face of the earth.
Many foreign journalists who came to cover the war in the Gaza trip were under the false impression that it was all about improving living conditions for the Palestinians by opening border crossings and building an airport and seaport. These journalists really believed that once the demands of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad are accepted, this would pave the way for peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians.
To understand the true intention of Hamas and its allies, it is sufficient to follow the statements made by their leaders after the cease-fire announcement this week. To his credit, Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas's leader, has never concealed Hamas's desire to destroy Israel.
Hamas and its allies see the war in the Gaza Strip as part of there strategy to destroy Israel. What Hamas and its allies are actually saying is, "Give us open borders and an airport and seaport so we can use them to prepare for the next war against Israel."
by Burak Bekdil
A front-page headline was particularly revealing: They (Israel) bombed a mosque in Gaza! Including the exclamation mark!
A quick internet search, if you typed "mosque bombing Shiite-Sunni," would give you 782,000 results on July 16.
Why did we not hear one single Turkish voice protest the death of 300,000 Muslims in Darfur?
Hamas's Charter is must-read fun.
by Bassam Tawil
What is sad is that the Gazans have not yet been able to free themselves from the yoke of Hamas.
The world seems not to understand that Hamas, like ISIS and the Muslim Brotherhood, does not exist in a vacuum. It is one cog in the radical Islamist wheel that threatens the Arab and Muslim world and the major cities of Europe.
The Western world also seems not to understand that it has to incapacitate or totally neutralize the countries funding terrorism, such as Iran, Qatar and Turkey, for whom the Palestinian problem is only a pretext on the way to destroying the Western world as we know it and replacing it with only Islam.
by Burak Bekdil
Hamas spokesman Sami Abu-Zuhri said: "All Israelis are legitimate targets." What would the Palestinian death toll have been if Mr. Netanyahu's spokesman declared all Palestinians as legitimate targets?
Underdog-nation romanticism tells us Israel should not respond when under rocket attack because it is capable of intercepting the rockets.
That there are fewer Israeli casualties does not mean Hamas does not want to kill; it just means, for the moment, Hamas cannot kill.
by Soeren Kern
Austria figures prominently in a map produced by the IS that outlines the group's five-year plan for expanding its caliphate into Europe, and has emerged as a central hub for jihadists seeking to fight in Syria.
"The spectrum of recruits for the conflict in Syria is ethnically diverse. The motivation, however, appears to be uniformly jihadist." — Austrian intelligence agency BVT.
"Allah also gives you the opportunity to wage jihad in Austria." — Austrian jihadist Firas Houidi.
"We are proud that Allah has chosen us. We feel like lions." — Austrian jihadist Abu Hamza al-Austria.