An institution built around one person, such as US President Donald J. Trump, carries the expiration date of that person's term in office. The states that join it do not.
The real plan, as can be seen from Saudi Arabia's recent moves, seems to be to avoid joining the Abraham Accords, and instead position themselves in Gaza, right on the border of Israel, to be able to attack it after Trump leaves office. No one will have his determination to make sure that any agreements are enforced.
Early on, Saudi Arabia came up with a "poison pill": the kingdom conditioned joining the Abraham Accords on the creation of a Palestinian state. Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman has since reached an agreement with the US that reportedly allows Saudi Arabia to develop domestic uranium enrichment capabilities under safeguards that fall short of the stringent standards previously demanded by Washington, rather than importing nuclear fuel as other Gulf countries do. The uranium enrichment would, of course, be supposedly "for peaceful purposes." However, these enrichment centrifuges could also be used to make nuclear weapons -- the same kind Iran is not allowed to have.
Secretary of Energy Chris Wright signed the nuclear framework before Trump, to his great credit, the next day presented his own "poison pill": first, Saudi Arabia would have to normalize its relations with Israel and join the Abraham Accords. This requirement seems to have been, revealingly, a dealbreaker.
Instead, Saudi Arabia organized the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement with Turkey, which has a vast military, and Pakistan, which has nuclear weapons. Based on the Middle East's frequent schoolyard excuse that "it all started when he hit me back," the three countries could, for instance, provoke or attack on Israel, then when Israel responds for its own self-defense, claim that all three of them had been attacked and "forced" to retaliate: Turkey with its conventional military, Pakistan with a nuclear weapon, and Saudi Arabia by financing the expedition.
[T]he most senior levels of the Israeli security establishment that concluded that Turkey is still financing Hamas. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan holds a seat on the Gaza Executive Board, the body charged with implementing the disarmament of Hamas.
When the White House named the executive board for the Board of Peace in January, its members included Fidan, senior Qatari official Ali Al-Thawadi and Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated publicly that the composition had never been coordinated with Israel and ran contrary to its policy.
The Board of Peace itself, 28 countries operating under UN Security Council Resolution 2803, released an interim report to the UNSC that identified Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the United States as the four mediating states. The 15-point roadmap that now governs Hamas's disarmament was drafted by those four "guarantors"... What, though, will they actually be guaranteeing?
A former senior Shin Bet officer with three decades in the service has argued that the parties actually driving developments inside the board are Qatar and Turkey, assisted by Egypt. The arrangement amounts to the Muslim Brotherhood supervising the supposed disarming of its own Palestinian branch, Hamas.
Turkey has been strengthening its hold on Syria and positioning its military there, potentially for a pincer attack on Israel: from Syria on Israel's east and Gaza on Israel's west.
Senior Israeli officials trace the Iranian money reaching Hamas and Hezbollah along a route running through Istanbul with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's implicit permission.
Money often settles what communiqués leave open. Eight governments -- among them Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Morocco -- signed the founding donors' declaration behind roughly $17 billion in reconstruction pledges... Whoever pays the contractors, the suppliers and eventually the policemen, will decide who governs the streets they patrol.
The political alignment already exists on paper. On August 3, Qatar, Egypt and Turkey published a declaration in their capacity as mediating countries, condemning Israeli operations in Gaza and calling on the international community to compel Israel to stop.
Trump's term of office ends in January 2029. He personally chairs the Board of Peace and will pass on that position to whoever succeeds him. Every month of delay moves the supposed complete disarmament of Hamas closer to Trump's successor, and to the states that will still be seated at the table when he or she arrives.
[T]he US State Department informed Congress that Turkey has not met the statutory conditions... which require Ankara to give up its Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air missiles. Although Turkey tested the S-400 following its delivery and has not returned it to Russia, the Turkish government claims that the system is in storage — presumably until it is taken out of storage.
Erdogan has made no secret of his intentions regarding Israel, as well as Syria, Cyprus and Greece. As recently as March 30, 2025, he stated, "May Allah, for the sake of his name ... destroy and devastate Zionist Israel" He also reportedly prayed for "mercy upon the martyrs" of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and a "speedy recovery" for their wounded terrorists. Previously, Erdogan stated, "Jerusalem is our city," and "Patience brings victory," and that "We are determined to not give up on our rights on Jerusalem." This is the country to which Trump wants to supply stealth fighter jets?
The Saudi nuclear file runs on an identical clock. The draft nuclear cooperation agreement reported to Congress does not contain a Saudi commitment to forgo enrichment and reprocessing, a commitment Washington spent two decades calling the gold standard for nuclear nonproliferation. The Agreement refers instead to additional "safeguards" in the most sensitive areas of cooperation, which is diplomatic phrasing for enrichment centrifuges on Saudi soil.
Even if the S-400 batteries have been shipped off from Turkey to another country, and Hamas offices in Istanbul are shuttered and independently verified as closed, no F-35 stealth fighter jets should be supplied to Turkey. After all, the S-400 missile batteries could always find their way back.
In addition, no uranium enrichment centrifuges should be allowed in Saudi Arabia, even if a binding Saudi renunciation of enrichment and reprocessing were written into the operative text, not a side letter. As we have seen with Iran, no one but Trump can be counted on to enforce international commitments.
Not one dollar for Gaza reconstruction should be disbursed through channels controlled by governments that Israel has identified as financing Hamas, the organization the money is meant to displace.
What Turkey and Saudi Arabia want from Washington is hardware, and those F-35s will still be flying and those centrifuges will still be spinning, long after the people that vouched for them have left office.