Iran's true intentions could not have been made any clearer: Last week, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flatly declared the issue of uranium enrichment is "non-negotiable."
Iran has called President Donald J. Trump's bluff about bombing the country if the regime does not voluntarily dismantle its uranium enrichment centrifuges, ballistic missiles and the rest of its nuclear program. Trump immediately folded. Now the president seems to be backing down and trying to dodge: "I think we can make a deal without the attack."
Uh, no, unfortunately, he cannot. If Trump tries to persuade Iran's regime to surrender its nuclear weapons with no firm deadline, the US, perhaps at the end of Trump's term, will soon find itself either surrendering or "dragged into a war." Sadly, this assessment does not even take into account the nuclear arms race that will take place when Iran decides to uncap its centrifuges and quickly enrich uranium to a weapons-grade 90%. Based on statements last July by then Secretary of State Antony Blinken -- "it [Iran] is now probably one or two weeks away from doing that" -- it is probable that Iran already has nuclear weapons capability.
Araghchi's declaration appeared in direct response to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's announcement that Washington was seeking a deal that would fully prevent Iran from enriching any uranium. If Iran can enrich a little uranium, it can later enrich a lot.
What one sees is that even when the United States extends an olive branch and offers diplomatic engagement, Iran, with no hesitation, doubles down on its nuclear demands. Tehran does not even pretend anymore. It openly defies the West. Iran's regime appears confident that there will always be enough naïve American presidents, politicians and negotiators willing to sign another disastrous deal, pretending to the public that they have won another victory for "diplomacy."
British Prime Minster Neville Chamberlain was tricked the same way by Hitler in 1938, but did not have the benefit of hindsight. We do. Iran's latest diktat to the United States openly states that the regime has no interest in compromise, no intention of abandoning its nuclear weapons program, and no fear of impotent threats from a US president.
The Iranian regime at least deserves credit for honesty. The mullahs want to preserve its uranium enrichment program: it gives the regime a loaded gun pointed at the world.
As with the President Barack Obama's 2015 JCPOA deal -- in which Iran, thanks to the deal's "sunset clauses," would legitimately be building as many nuclear weapons as it liked, beginning October 18, 2025 -- if enrichment is capped at a lower level, the infrastructure, knowledge, and capacity to quickly escalate to weapons-grade uranium remains firmly in Tehran's hands.
This is the Iranian regime's entire strategy: maintain just enough of the nuclear program under international legitimacy to ensure that, at a time of their choosing, they can "break out" their nuclear weapon and use it as a means of intimidation.
One thing is certain: the minute it is clear that Iran has acquired nuclear weapons, every country in the Middle East, except for Israel, will submit to it rather than risk being bombed.
This cat-and-mouse game has been Iran's playbook for nearly 20 years. The regime pretends to comply with some dismissible Westerner, dial back enrichment slightly to satisfy desperate Western politicians who want to score short-term diplomatic victories, and in return, they extract billions of dollars in sanctions relief, economic benefits and especially political legitimacy.
Once the Western politicians -- often celebrated as "peacemakers" -- who negotiated the deals have left office, Iran quietly ramps up its activities again, always ending up far stronger than before. This cycle has repeated itself so many times that it should no longer be called diplomacy; it should be called what it is: appeasement.
If you take an honest look at the past two decades, despite all the appeasement and deals one after another, and despite so-called "assurances" from the international community, Iran's nuclear program has kept on advancing.
During the early stages of its nuclear program, Iran was still years away from being able to produce enough fissile material for a bomb. Now, after decades of talks and deals, Iran could very well be a nuclear-armed state. Each round international negotiation happily gave Iran breathing room, time to develop its technology, and money to stabilize its collapsing economy. The West's obsession with political optics -- holding up pieces of paper and proclaiming "peace in our time" -- has allowed Iran to play the long game. Iran's is not a government that thinks in four- or six-year election cycles. It is a regime ruled by a "Supreme Leader" who thinks in terms of decades and is comfortably willing to wait out spineless Western leaders.
Meanwhile, in our democracies -- looked down on by the theocratic regime with righteous contempt -- politicians are focused almost exclusively on scoring a political win they can cite on the campaign trail, boosting approval ratings and getting re-elected. Western politicians look no further than the next election; Iran looks at the destination.
Tehran understands that Western leaders are desperate for "achievements" they can list on their résumés. Iran plays along just enough to let them declare hollow victories, and then resumes its nuclear conquest once the temporary "roadblock" is gone. In this way, the regime has outlasted multiple American presidents, European prime ministers, and countless negotiators. Iran just keeps steadily advancing while the West congratulates itself on meaningless accords.
That is why any new agreement permitting Iran to keep even the smallest amount of a capacity to enrich uranium is not a solution -- it is capitulation. It gives Iran precisely what it wants: the ability to break out nuclear weapons while enjoying economic recovery, international acceptance and continuing to sow international terrorism.
Worse yet, this backing down sends a dangerous signal to other rogue states -- that defiance pays off.
Allowing Iran to enrich uranium at even the lowest levels leaves the world at the mercy of a brutal, fanatical regime, it makes a mockery of the non-proliferation show, and again reveals that a supine West is unwilling to confront real danger with the seriousness it demands.
The only solution for Trump, unfortunately, is not what he wishes: the complete and total dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program with no enrichment, no centrifuges and no facilities capable of being restarted. Sadly, nothing will really work short of the full destruction of Iran's centrifuges, ballistic missile program and ability to export terrorism via its insatiable proxies.
Dear President Trump, most importantly, all this work must not be entrusted to the international community, the United Nations, or any multilateral body that has already proven incapable of dealing with Tehran's duplicitous regime. Total disarmament must be the responsibility of the United States and Israel -- which Iran calls the "Great Satan" and the "Little Satan."
America, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly points out, is the country Iran's regime actually wants; Israel is standing in the way. What is it about "Death to Israel" and "Death to America" that is so difficult to understand? A coordinated effort between Washington and Jerusalem would ensure that Iran's nuclear dream is permanently crushed. Anything less, Mr. President, is destined to end up in the war you seem to be hoping to sidestep.
Mr. President, you have a choice. You can leave behind a legacy as the great, historic global leader who had the courage to save the entire free world from the Iranian nuclear threat. Or you can seek a meaningless political victory by signing a deal that will just paper over the crisis for twenty minutes. If you negotiate a weak agreement, history will remember you not as a success, but as a gigantic "loser" – and regard you with the same derision as Chamberlain. Chamberlain never got a Nobel Peace Prize and neither will you. But if you save the world from a nuclear Iran, you will go down in history as a second Winston Churchill.
It is time to stop the charade. Continuing to negotiate with an Iran that has bluntly stated that it will never give up its claimed "right to enrich uranium" is not diplomacy, it is surrender. Any agreement that allows even limited enrichment is a betrayal of everything the West stands for. We must not walk down that path again.
Mr. President, act now, decisively, and ensure that Iran's nuclear ambitions are buried forever -- and most of all that your legacy as the greatest leader of the 21st Century is enshrined forever.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, is a political scientist, Harvard-educated analyst, and board member of Harvard International Review. He has authored several books on the US foreign policy. He can be reached at dr.rafizadeh@post.harvard.edu
Alan Rockman