While the world's 1.4 billion Catholics wait prayerfully for the elevation to the papacy of the 267th pope, successor to the Christ-appointed St. Peter, most of the rest of humanity may be wondering what impact the new pontiff could have on global affairs.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership, which did not send a representative to the funeral of Pope Francis, has cause to be attentive. If this week's Papal Conclave selects Philippines Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, the Archbishop of Manila, CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping would have reason for concern.
Tagle, who is part-Chinese, could serve as a powerful opponent of Xi's agenda to incorporate Taiwan. Tagle could also powerfully remonstrate against Beijing's aggressive behavior toward Philippine Coast Guard vessels and fishing boats in disputed waters off the Philippine islands. A Philippine Pope could also influence the tens of millions of "Overseas Chinese" who reside in Archipelago and Mainland Southeast Asia, especially with regard to the CCP's colossal claims of territorial and maritime sovereignty in the South and East China Seas.
Some cynics may quote Stalin who, discounting the influence of the Vatican, which opposed Soviet occupation of largely Christian East Europe, sarcastically asked "How many divisions does the pope have?" Significantly, Pope John Paul II, when he took on the Kremlin directly, contributing to the collapse of Communist rule in East Europe and within the USSR itself, had no divisions.
Although the CCP did permit the Shanghai-born 93-year-old Joseph Cardinal Zen Ze-kiun from Hong Kong to fly to Rome for the ecclesiastical ceremonies, China has tightened direct CCP control over organized religion by implementing several restrictive measures since Xi came to power in 2013. During the 12-year papacy of Francis, the CCP insisted on a decisive role in the approval process of China's new Catholic Bishops, a failed Vatican compromise which the democracy advocate, Zen, opposed. According to this deal, signed in 2018 and renewed last year, candidates to the Episcopal Sees (Bishoprics) in China judged acceptable to the Party were recognized by the CCP as belonging to the "Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association."
The Chinese regime has moved swiftly, since the death of Francis, to appoint two new bishops deemed acceptable to the CCP. There is, however, a large "underground" Catholic Church throughout China which holds some services in private domiciles, similar to some Islamic countries such as Iran.
As the majority of the approximately 130 eligible electors in the College of Cardinals were appointed by Pope Francis, it is logical to assume that the next Pope will be most concerned with pastoral matters around the world's poor, oppressed and marginalized.
Geopolitically, however, the papal selection process may reflect the Catholic Church's phenomenal growth in the Global South. Pope Francis intensified appointments of Cardinals from countries which once were hinterlands of the Faith. Francis deliberately named new Cardinals from countries where the Church is expanding, especially Africa, where he appointed about two-thirds of the continent's electors. No longer is the Vatican tucked away just in the Euro-Atlantic World: 82 of the approximately 135 electors are not from Europe. Pope Francis even selected a Cardinal for Mongolia.
Some Catholics who are sensitive to the Holy See's influence on international affairs may be hoping for a Pope who exercises decisive moral clarity in condemning brutal behavior, whether in Africa, China or elsewhere.
Pope Francis seemed to be infrequent in his condemnation of Islamist atrocities and when he did condemn them, he would be quick to criticize those who equated the religion of Islam with violence. Mass murders of Catholics and other Christians by Islamists take place daily in Nigeria, Mozambique, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
Significantly, the DRC is where the 65-year-old Fridolin Cardinal Ambongo Besungu resides as the Archbishop of Kinshasa. An African Pope might satisfy the needs of the church to be a pastoral aide to the downtrodden, but also a theological traditionalist, as most African Catholics are religiously conservative, particularly on issues of gender and sexuality.
Africa is flooded with the blood of today's martyrs. It is also where the Catholic Church has seen phenomenal growth. Perhaps a Pope with outspoken moral clarity could help educate the Euro-Atlantic world to Islam's threat to Judeo-Christian Civilization.
Many Catholics who embraced the pastoral emphasis of Pope Francis also want a heroic Pope, not reticent about clearly delineating publicly between noble behavior and that which, in a civilized world, should be deemed intolerable. Many Catholics found it difficult to accept the Pope Francis' sometimes seemingly characterization of the war in Gaza as a struggle between morally equivalent opponents, despite the demonic atrocities that Gazans meted out to innocents in Israel on October 7, 2023. There are heroic candidates among the "Papabiles" (Papal possibles) such as the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, who offered himself in exchange for the hostages seized by the Gaza terrorist group Hamas.
Although the Vatican's reason for being is to guide souls to God, its pronouncements on secular affairs not only have a profound impact, literally, on the lives of millions of Catholics, but on preserving the Judeo-Christian values upon which civilization is built, as well.
Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve.
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