Iran's ruling elite, bluntly, believes that both its survival and its mission depend on acquiring nuclear weapons. They saw what happened to Libya and Ukraine when their leaders gave up their nuclear weapons, and understood that this was not the way to go. To Iran's rulers, their nuclear program is not just a policy objective to protect the continuation of their regime, but the centerpiece of Iran's ideology and propaganda.
Despite having some of the world's richest oil and gas reserves, the regime has accepted crushing sanctions and economic ruin, all under the excuse of pursuing nuclear power. The regime's goal is the bomb.
Many different groups were involved in the 1979 revolution that overthrew the monarchy of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, but Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini quickly eliminated his rivals and imposed an Islamist system unlike anything else in modern history: Velayat-e-Faqih, or "the rule of the Islamic jurist." In this vision, drawn from a radical interpretation of Twelver Shiism, political power belongs not to the people, but to Allah, and through Him to the clerical class acting as representatives of the Twelfth Iman, known as the "Hidden Imam." This belief forms the foundation of the Supreme Leader's authority. Iran's Supreme Leader is not just a political figure, but is considered divine, with a legitimacy given not by man but by Allah.
In Iran, the Supreme Leader is the only absolute ruler. He appoints the judiciary, controls the military, dictates foreign policy, and approves or rejects all applicants for election candidacy. Elections exist, but are meaningless ceremonies. Presidents and parliaments do not govern, they obey. What is absent from the Islamic Republic of Iran is a "republic."
The West still fails to grasp this regime's worldview. It is not just authoritarian, it is theological. It sees the world in binary terms: believers and infidels, Shiites and non-Shiites. It also believes that history is heading toward a final confrontation, in which Iran will be prepared militarily and spiritually to lead. That is why the Iranian nuclear program is not negotiable. It is holy, sacred.
Iran's private militia, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), embodies the most radical interpretation of the Quran. For example, Surah al-Anfal, verse 8:60, which commands Muslims:
"And prepare against them whatever you are able of power and of steeds of war by which you may terrify the enemy of Allah and your enemy and others besides them whom you do not know [but] whom Allah knows. And whatever you spend in the cause of Allah will be fully repaid to you, and you will not be wronged." (Sahih International Translation)
This verse is used by the IRGC not just as a call for defense, but as a religious endorsement of nuclear armament. In this view, nuclear weapons are not only permitted, but also necessary. They are both a shield against the regime's many enemies and a divine tool for the end-times struggle they believe is coming.
Iran's leadership sees deception not as dishonorable, but as strategic. The Islamic doctrine of taqiyya, or religiously sanctioned deception, allows lying to infidels in the name of survival or victory. Combine this with their reading of Islamic sources such as the Islamic Prophet Mohammed's saying that "war is deceit", therefore, any agreement, verbal or written, is ultimately meaningless to a regime that views deception as doctrine.
Western diplomats still behave as if they're dealing with a conventional authoritarian state. They're not. They're dealing with an absolutist religious movement that uses treaties as cover and smiles as strategy. The Obama Administration's 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement with Iran never involved real concessions from the Islamic Republic. It was an Iranian delay tactic, a calibrated pause to outlast and outmaneuver naive Western governments.
The silence of then US President Barack Obama during Iran's 2009 Green Movement protests betrayed millions of Iranians fighting for freedom. Instead of supporting the people, he chose to preserve nuclear negotiations, a decision that allowed the regime to survive and rebuild.
By contrast, President Donald J. Trump's withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 and his killing of IRGC Quds Force commander Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani represented a break from this pattern of appeasement. The regime's lack of response to Soleimani's killing revealed something essential: the mullahs understand only strength.
The Biden administration revived the failed engagement policies, and Iran became bolder than ever. From backing Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Hamas invasion of Israel on October 7, 2023, to direct launching ballistic missiles and drones at Israel in 2024, the Iranian regime acted without fear. If these events did not convince the West of the consequences of compromise with Tehran, what will?
When Iran released a video simulating the assassination of Trump, it clearly never expected him to return to power. But now, Iran's goal is simple: survive the next four years by dragging out talks and buying time to acquire nuclear bombs and rebuild the air defenses that Israel destroyed.
While the West was playing this game of hide-and-seek bogus diplomacy, Iran managed to deploy more advanced centrifuges, enrich uranium to higher levels (weapons-grade), build and expand deeper underground facilities, and find more sophisticated ways to conceal its nuclear progress.
Here is the bitter truth: A new deal with Iran might look like a solution. In reality, a deal will only give Iran more time and more cover to evade whatever it agrees to. The regime will invent distractions to advance its program underground. Another war. Another proxy. Another crisis.
Iran's nuclear program must be completely and permanently dismantled. Even if ideology were not part of the equation, Iran's corruption, mismanagement and incompetence would still make it unfit to operate any nuclear facility. Senior officials are appointed through favoritism, cronyism or family ties. Industry is collapsing. Accountability is nonexistent.
Nobody wants to see a Chernobyl-like nuclear disaster caused by Iranian incompetence or something even worse, caused by ideological intent.
Iran's regime cannot be reformed. Most especially, it cannot be trusted. It will never voluntarily give up its nuclear ambitions. Those ambitions are not just political. They are theological.
The day we wake up to hear that Iran is about to use its nuclear bomb will be the day the world changes forever.
Amin Sharifi is an expert in international relations and the Middle East. He is presently based in Sweden.
