US President Donald Trump's belated realisation that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not interested in a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict could finally provide the breakthrough Kyiv desperately needs to win the war.
Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has persisted in his belief that, because of the strong personal relationship he enjoys with Putin, he could persuade the Russian despot to agree to a lasting ceasefire.
Back in February, Trump insisted that Putin was a man of honour who would abide by his undertaking to accept a ceasefire after the White House had published its own formula for ending the conflict, one that required Ukraine to accept Russia's illegal conquest of its territory.
Having forced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to accept humiliating ceasefire terms, Trump was confident he could get Putin to sign up too, not least because Trump's deal effectively met all the Russian leader's key demands, such as the acceptance of Russia's control over annexed Ukrainian territory in Crimea and eastern Ukraine and a commitment that Kyiv would not be allowed to join the NATO alliance.
Trump's confidence that he could persuade Putin to accept these generous terms was so strong that it led the president to remark in February when meeting British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer that he would accept the deal.
"I think he'll keep his word," Trump said of Putin.
"I've known him for a long time now, and I think he will. I don't believe he's going to violate his word. I don't think he'll be back when we make a deal. I think the deal is going to hold now."
Trump has persisted with the notion that Putin could eventually be persuaded to accept a ceasefire deal for several months, with the two leaders having several lengthy phone conversations on the details. At the same time the Trump administration has reduced supplies of advanced weaponry to Ukraine, severely impacting the Ukrainians' ability to defend themselves from Russia's summer offensive.
Putin's failure, though, to agree to a ceasefire has led Trump to conclude that the Russian leader is simply "tapping me along" to buy more time to enable Russian forces to take advantage of the Ukrainians' weakness.
The final straw for Trump appears to have come after his most recent call with Putin, earlier this month, which led the American president to conclude that the Kremlin simply was not interested in ending hostilities.
"I'm not happy with Putin. I can tell you that much right now," Trump told a meeting of cabinet officials following his latest conversation with the Russian leader, noting that Russian and Ukrainian soldiers were dying in the thousands.
"We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin... He's very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless," Trump commented.
Trump said he was considering whether to support a bill in the Senate that would impose steep sanctions on Russia over the war.
Trump's frustration with Putin's constant procrastination has finally led him to conclude that the Russians have no genuine interest in a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict, and that it is in America's interests to provide Ukraine with the necessary military and economic support to confront Russian aggression.
As a first step to strengthening US support for Ukraine, Trump has reversed the Pentagon's recent decision to limit arms supplies -- including Patriot air defence systems -- to Kyiv.
In addition, he announced on Tuesday that the US will send billions of dollars of military equipment, including long-range missiles that can hit targets on Russian territory, in a deal that will be paid for by other NATO countries.
Sitting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office, Trump told reporters that he was disappointed in Putin, whom he suggested was "all talk" about ending the war. He said the weapons would be "top of the line", and warned that the US could impose 100 percent tariffs on Russia's main trading partners -- including China -- if the Russian leader did not sign a peace deal to end the war within the next 50 days.
"We're going to be doing secondary tariffs. If we don't have a deal in 50 days, it's very simple, and they'll be at 100 per cent," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office in a move designed to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing.
Confirmation of the deepening cooperation between Kyiv and Washington, meanwhile, was clearly evident after Zelensky's latest meeting with US special envoy Keith Kellogg, which the Ukrainian leader described as a "productive conversation."
Posting on X after the meeting, Zelensky said the pair discussed what the US and Ukraine "can practically do" to bring peace to Ukraine closer:
"This includes strengthening Ukraine's air defence, joint production, and procurement of defence weapons in collaboration with Europe. And of course, sanctions against Russia and those who help it."
He added that Kyiv was hoping for US leadership, and "it is clear that Moscow will not stop unless its unreasonable ambitions are curbed through strength."
Trump's change of heart on Ukraine is not only welcome, it could prove vital to improving Ukraine's hopes of ultimately emerging victorious from the conflict, not least because Trump's recent decision to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities has demonstrated America's willingness to use its overwhelming military superiority when required.
Ever since Putin launched his so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine in February 2022, both the Biden and Trump administrations have been wary of demonstrating America's military prowess for fear of escalating the conflict.
The Trump administration's intervention in Iran, though, where the US military dropped fourteen 30,000 lb bunker-buster bombs on Iran's underground enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow, demonstrated unequivocally Washington's superior firepower, a message that will not have been lost on the Kremlin.
At the same time, the ease with which US and Israeli warplanes were able to penetrate Iran's Russian-made air defences has been a humiliating experience for the Kremlin and its claim to rival the US in terms of military capability.
At a time when Russia's weakness has been graphically exposed on the world stage, there is a golden opportunity for the Trump administration to drive home its advantage.
It can do this by providing Ukraine with the sophisticated weaponry it needs to win the war in Ukraine, in the knowledge that Russian missiles and air defences are simply no match for America's superior military might.
It would seem advisable for the future of Europe and the Free World to ensure that even a charming Putin – nonetheless a KGB graduate and serial mass-murderer in Grozny, Syria, Ukraine, not to mention his invasions of Georgia and Crimea -- is not allowed to emerge from this conflict before being thoroughly defeated.
Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
