One of the most unheralded geopolitical developments in the Middle East, following Israel's military victories over regional enemies, is Israel's diplomatic reaction to the new regime of Ahmed al-Sharaa (aka Abu Mohammad al-Jolani) in Syria. Recent meetings in Paris between high-level Israeli and Syrian diplomats have reportedly resulted in a de-escalation of tensions as well as in establishing significant security improvements for Israel along its border with Syria.
Israel's Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer was apparently successful in extracting a promise from the Sharaa regime not to dispatch Syrian military forces south of Damascus. This agreement exists in large part to safeguard Druze communities in Syria's Suweida Province. Syria's concession was in keeping with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's stated intention to defend the Druze against any repeat of July massacres by regime-affiliated terrorists and Bedouin tribesmen. An estimated 1,300 people were killed in the attacks, many of whom were Druze civilians, including women and children. Netanyahu's pledge of protection to the Druze was possibly given to thank so many of Israel's Druze citizens who have loyally been serving in the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF).
Just as significant was the Syrian regime's agreement to demilitarize two of its provinces, Quneitra and Dara, both of which lie along Israel's border. Now, evidently, no heavy weapons will be permitted in these Syrian provinces.
Damascus apparently did not challenge Jerusalem's recent move into a new area in the Golan Heights that had been administered by the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force since 1974. The new area is now being safeguarded by the IDF as a buffer zone between Israel and Syria.
Israel's diplomatic triumph was facilitated by the tenuous hold on power of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) regime in Damascus, led Sharaa, the former Commander of al-Qaeda's Syrian branch, Jabhat al-Nusra. Sharaa controls Damascus and its environs, but much of Syria's traditional territory may not be totally under his control. Sharaa does not seem to have firm control over the thousands of foreign jihadists in Syria who came from Turkey, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Tajikistan and China's Muslim Uyghur community, who helped the HTS to seize power by overthrowing the regime of Bashar al-Assad last December.
Sharaa's greatest potential threat to continued HTS rule might be a still-potent Islamic State (ISIS) challenging his administration. ISIS has already been attempting to recruit dissatisfied foreign-born terrorists from Sharaa's Syrian National Army -- which has also been busy recruiting former anti-Assad rebels.
Israel's negotiations with Sharaa were encouraged by the United States, which apparently hopes, among other objectives, to protect Syria's Kurdish population.
The Trump administration will likely pressure Sharaa's regime not to threaten Syria's Kurds, who make up a large portion of the pro-US Syrian Democratic Army in northeast Syria.
Sharaa might also have to count on the US to resist pressure from his benefactor Turkey, which may be urging him to target Syria's Kurds.
The question, however, remains if Sharaa is actually doing all he can to "protect all minorities" as he promised, or did Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, in pressuring US President Donald Trump to give Sharaa a chance to govern, set Trump up?
Is Sharaa truly on a path to joining the Western alliance, or is he really just a terrorist in a suit and tie?
Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve.
