Despite numerous claims and counterclaims by Iran, Israel and the United States about the possible outcome of their current war, one thing is clear: None of the trio has achieved the goals they set for themselves when they lit its fire.
On the Iranian side, the late Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had hoped that by adopting the "Samson option," he would provoke a brief regional war with limited damage to his Islamic Republic because he would step in and offer another of his "heroic flexibility" tricks before things got out of hand. He also hoped he would be allowed to do a pirouette himself and re-energize his moribund regime for a few more years.
However, things didn't go as he fancied.
His "heroic flexibility" was designed to come after the first wave of attacks by Israeli and American bombers targeting part of Iran's military infrastructure. However, as he wasn't there to do his part, Israel and the US had to go for a second wave of bombings.
When that too didn't produce the "heroic flexibility," President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had no choice but to continue with a third wave of bombing, this time targeting Iran's industrial infrastructure on a scale not known since World War II.
Trump tried to find someone in Tehran who would do the "heroic flexibility" part of the script written by the late supreme leader. When he didn't find anyone, Trump decided to invent a new "leader" in Tehran with whom he claimed to be having "fruitful talks" to end the war. When it became clear that there was no such leader in Tehran, Trump decided to do the "heroic flexibility" part himself by claiming he had achieved regime change in Tehran and would leave the war in two or three weeks.
Outside the trio involved in the war, the world has been divided between those who, because they hate Trump or Netanyahu or even America and Israel as a whole, designate the mullahs as victors, and those who, translating their hatred of the Iranian regime into a wish for Iran's destruction as a nation-state, declare Trump and Netanyahu as winners.
Anti-US and anti-Israel circles exaggerate the effect of Tehran's tactic of inflicting economic pain on the world by playing fast and loose with oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting overall trade in a chunk of the region. That in turn intensifies the effects of the mullahs' mischief-making. They forget that the global economy dealt with much bigger challenges in terms of inflation, shortage of some key supplies and trade disruption during the COVID-19 crisis.
Seen from a long-term angle, all three protagonists in this war risk emerging as losers. Without a clear regime change in Tehran, neither Trump nor Netanyahu could justify the huge cost in treasure and prestige of this war.
A fishtail outcome would remind Americans and Israelis that Hamas is still in control of a third of the Gaza Strip and recognized as a negotiating partner by the Trump administration. Meanwhile, Trump's Board of Peace is morphing into another of his impressionistic nature-morte tableaux.
The US and Israel may also lose the Iranian people as one of the few nations known for their positive view of both countries. The theme of "you came and destroyed our industrial, economic and scientific infrastructure, but left our torturers in place" is gaining currency among Iranians both at home and abroad. The mass gathering organized by the Iranian exile National Rising Party with the slogan "Thank You President Trump" in front of the White House was prompted by forlorn hopes of an end to 47 years of Khomeinist rule.
If it leaves the Khomeinist regime in place, the US may also have a tough task to regain credibility as protector of allied nations that host its military bases. However, there is little doubt that although the Khomeinist regime is badly mauled, the biggest loser in this war will be the Iranian people. The war stopped the national anti-Khomeinist uprising that had started last winter and was resumed after a brief lull just days before the bombers appeared in Iranian skies.
Now, a people facing mass unemployment and shortages of food, water and medicine, would not be immediately ready for another attempt at regime change.
The war has destroyed thousands of jobs in Iran, and the Islamic Republic has also lost a good many of its warships and merchant navy. Its weapons industry has been decimated, and its vast nuclear project put back by years if not decades.
The war has also taken a toll in terms of historic and cultural sites, some of them part of the human heritage damaged or destroyed by weeks of relentless bombing.
Worse still, Iran's unprovoked ballistic missile and drone attacks on neighboring countries in no way involved in this war may have done lasting damage to the largely tolerant, not to say benevolent, attitude that many of them had of Iran even under the mullahs.
On several occasions, Trump threatened to bomb Iran back into the Stone Age. Although he came close to doing that, he may have changed his mind because he realized that even in the Stone Age, people can fight back with stones. The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry.
Amir Taheri was the executive editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from 1972 to 1979. He has worked at or written for innumerable publications, published eleven books, and has been a columnist for Asharq Al-Awsat since 1987. He graciously serves as Chairman of Gatestone Europe.
Gatestone Institute would like to thank the author for his kind permission to reprint this article from Asharq Al-Awsat.
