The Iranian regime has suddenly shifted its tone in recent weeks. It is now -- sort of -- presenting itself as willing to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Headlines have been dominated by announcements that Tehran is – maybe -- prepared to allow inspectors back into its nuclear facilities, to resume talks with Western powers, and to abide by stricter oversight of its atomic activities.
At first glance, these gestures may seem like a breakthrough. Unfortunately, history demands a more skeptical reading. This is not a sign of fundamental change within the regime. Iran's Supreme National Security Council has made it clear that if biting UN sanctions are reinstated by the West, there will be no nuclear inspections. Iran's willingness to "cooperate" is conditional and coercive. The regime is threatening to withhold compliance to pressure the international community into softening sanctions and granting concessions, all while seeking a carefully staged maneuver designed to buy time, regain breathing space, and prepare for a stronger counterpunch down the line.
Whenever the Iranian regime begins to speak the language of cooperation and compromise, it is not because its leaders have chosen moderation out of principle or newfound goodwill. Rather, it happens when the regime is under unbearable pressure, when it finds itself weakened, cornered, and with no other path of survival. In the past few months, Tehran has been battered from multiple directions. This summer, its nuclear facilities suffered devastating blows in Israeli and US airstrikes, destroying advanced centrifuge installations and uranium enrichment infrastructure that had taken decades to develop. Senior military and scientific leaders were killed in precision strikes, robbing the regime of expertise and operational capacity. Iran's economy is collapsing under the weight of sanctions, mismanagement, corruption and international isolation. On the regional stage, Iran has watched its allies and proxies weaken under relentless military pressure, and its once-vaunted reach across the Middle East is severely diminished.
The collapse the Assad regime in Syria last December was a particularly devastating blow. For years, Syria had been Iran's most critical Arab ally, providing a land bridge to Hezbollah in Lebanon and serving as a forward base for projecting Iranian influence. With Assad gone, Tehran has lost a cornerstone of its regional strategy. Combined with the setbacks its militias and proxies have faced from Israeli operations in Lebanon, and US and Israeli operations in Iraq and Yemen, Iran's ability to export its Islamist revolution through terrorist networks has been badly eroded.
Domestically, meanwhile, the regime faces a restless population that has risen against it multiple times in the past decade, each wave of protest harder to suppress and more widespread than the last.
Against this backdrop, Tehran's sudden willingness to talk should not be misunderstood. In Iran, cooperation is not born out of strength — it is born out of desperation and coercion. The regime knows that if it refuses to appear conciliatory, it risks triggering its endgame. By late October, United Nations sanctions are set to "snap back" under the terms of Security Council Resolution 2231, unless the regime demonstrates full compliance with its nuclear obligations. These sanctions would further strangle Iran's economy, cut it off from crucial international financial networks, and deal a devastating blow to its legitimacy.
Iran's leadership is using the threat of non-cooperation as leverage: it is signaling that nuclear inspections will be blocked and compliance will be withheld unless the West grants concessions or delays reinstating sanctions. The leadership in Tehran understands that failure to prevent this could most likely spell the beginning of the end for its rule. That is why it has chosen to play the card of conditional diplomacy and intimidation.
What Tehran seeks now is exactly what it received a decade ago during the Obama years: time and relief. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action "nuclear deal" was portrayed by the West as a breakthrough for peace and nonproliferation. In reality, it offered the Islamic Republic a lifeline. Billions of dollars were unlocked through sanctions relief, oil revenues surged, and access to the global financial system was restored.
Rather than moderating, Iran used those resources to arm Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and other proxies. That period of empowerment culminated in the horrific October 7, 2023 terrorist invasion of Israel by Hamas, an operation made possible in large part by the networks and resources Iran had been able to build up, thanks to the 2015 nuclear deal.
Today, the same pattern has reappeared. Tehran needs sanctions lifted, it needs hard currency inflows, and it needs international legitimacy. It needs these things not to reform itself, but to rebuild what has been broken, to rearm its proxies, and to prepare for something bigger than before. Iran's Supreme Leader and his inner circle inner circle do not think in terms of election cycles, but of decades.
Unlike democratic governments in Israel, the United States or Europe, which change every few years and must answer to shifting public moods, the leadership in Tehran is entrenched for life. This allows them to play a long game, feigning weakness when necessary, waiting patiently for openings, and striking with devastating force once conditions favor them again.
That is why it would be a dangerous mistake to ease pressure now. If the West allows itself to be fooled once again, Iran will use this reprieve to rebuild its nuclear infrastructure, possibly in more secretive and hardened facilities. It will funnel new resources into Hezbollah, militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen. It will expand its missile and drone programs, making them more lethal and precise. And it will work methodically toward another round of aggression, one potentially larger and more destabilizing than anything the region has yet witnessed.
The only responsible course of action is to maintain maximum pressure. The UN sanctions snapback must not be delayed or watered down. It should be fully reinstated and rigorously enforced, cutting off Iran's access to global markets and further constraining its already fragile economy. At the same time, Western military options must remain firmly on the table.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has never responded to anything but credible force. The destruction of its nuclear facilities this summer proved this, and the knowledge that further strikes could follow is one of the few things restraining the regime's ambitions. Verification, not promises, must be the standard. Inspections should be immediate, intrusive and unconditional. Any attempt by Tehran to delay, restrict or politicize access must be met with swift consequences. Economic pressure must continue, targeting the regime's illicit trade networks, its access to dual-use technologies, and its smuggling operations. International coordination must be strong, with the United States, Europe and regional partners standing together to prevent Tehran from exploiting divisions.
The Iranian regime has perfected the art of playing for time. It feigns cooperation when cornered, breathes once sanctions are lifted, and then lashes out with renewed aggression once it has rebuilt its capacity. Its threats regarding nuclear inspections make it clear that Tehran is trying to force the West into concessions while maintaining the ability to obstruct verification. This is the old game it has played time and again. The West cannot afford to be deceived once more. The victims of 1983, 1994, 2001 and October 7, 2023 stand as a reminder of what happens when Iran is given space to recover.
Tehran's apparent turn toward cooperation is not a signal of peace but a ploy for survival. It is the mask of weakness worn by a regime waiting for the chance to strike harder than before. The world must not be lulled into complacency. The snapback sanctions must proceed, military pressure must remain, and the West must deny the regime the "oxygen" it seeks.
Iran's threats demonstrate that its "cooperation" comes with strings attached, designed to intimidate and extract concessions. Do not fall again for its trap. Do not let the devil get up.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, is a political scientist, Harvard-educated analyst, and board member of Harvard International Review. He has authored several books on the US foreign policy. He can be reached at dr.rafizadeh@post.harvard.edu
