It was with a sigh of relief that the Islamic Republic of Iran's President Massoud Pezeshkian welcomed the new academic year and the start of autumn the other day -- relief that what is dubbed "the thirstiest summer" in Iran's long history was over.
Only two months ago, he had warned that even Tehran, the capital city, may run out of water within weeks. The disaster he had predicted was avoided, but the factors that could have shaped it remain present.
Iran today is running short of water.
The latest figures published by the Ministry of Water and Power paint a grim picture.
Most of the 80 dams across the country contain only 36 percent of their water-holding capacity.
Of the nation's 31 provinces, only two have maintained the balance between water use and renewal of water resources.
Everywhere else, the story is one of fast-dwindling sources of water. In the "water year" ended September 1, 2025, Iran recorded rainfall of only 150 millimeters, a 39 percent drop compared to the average of the past 10 years and a 40 percent fall compared to 2024.
At the same time, water accumulation in the hydro-projects fell by 45 percent.
One of the driest countries in the world, Iran needs a minimum of 251 millimeters of annual rainfall to avoid rapid desertification.
Other official studies paint an even grimmer picture for the coming years.
Over 40 percent of the country's estimated 300 lakes and wetlands have either dried up or are on the way to becoming patches of desert within a decade.
Lake Urmia, once the 18th-largest in the world, seems to have disappeared for good.
Also gone is Lake Hamun in the east, on the Afghan border.
Next in line for desertification are Jaz-Murian in Baluchistan and Bakhtegan in Fars Province, a natural beauty spot frequented by pink flamingoes. The Hoveyzah marshland in the southwest, dubbed "a chunk of paradise on earth," is threatened with desertification as the flow of rivers feeding it declines.
The position of scores of rivers is no better.
Almost 40 percent of the nation's 200 rivers and rivulets have either totally dried up or are reduced to seasonal streams.
The once mighty Zayandehrud, the "Life-Giving" River, has dwindled to a narrow stream that appears for a few days each year. The Gav-Khuni marshland where it ended is already a patch of semi-humid desert. Zayandehrud's death threatens the very existence of Isfahan, one of the world's most beautiful historical cities and long a capital of Iran.
The county's largest, longest, and only navigable river, the Karun, which passes through three provinces, has lost 40 percent of its traditional water flow.
Iran's water crisis has also led to loss or salinization of topsoil and land subsidence in 25 provinces.
One immediate effect is a steady drop in food production.
The Food and Agricultural Organization, a UN body based in Rome, says Iran doesn't face an immediate threat of famine, but 25 percent of the population is threatened with "moderate to severe" food shortages.
What is the cause of this looming disaster?
One obvious cause is a spell of drought that is heading into its fifth year. But here are other more important causes.
In the 1990s, the government decided to seek complete self-sufficiency in food production, with the excuse that it must prepare to face sanctions that might affect food imports.
To be sure, food imports, along with medicinal drugs and equipment, were never part of UN or other sanctions. But the slogan "khod-kafa'i" (self-sufficiency) copied from the North Korean "juche," shaped agricultural policy.
The area under cultivation was increased by 40 percent, which necessitated the building of numerous dams, dikes, and canals that drained the rivers and necessitated numerous artesian wells that sucked up underground water resources.
By 2019, agriculture accounted for between 60 and 80 percent of Iran's water consumption but provided only 18 percent of the gross domestic product.
Self-sufficiency was achieved while Iran also became a major source of agricultural products for Russia and Iraq. Iran would have done better to import grains and other agricultural commodities that require high water use, and instead focus on high-value and exportable products such as the wide variety of fruit native to the country for thousands of years, in order to pay for imports.
The mass use of artesian wells and hastily-built dams also meant the neglect of the nation's system of underground water channels that avoided evaporation and regulated water use in a targeted way. Known as qanats, those channels are among the three major inventions credited to Iranians, the other two being windmills and wind-towers to cool buildings. The mother of all three inventions was the necessity of coping with a shortage of water.
Another cause of the current crisis, as mentioned by Pezeshkian, is population increase.
Iran's population has almost doubled three times since 1960, when the first scientific census was taken. Mass urbanization is another factor, as city-dwellers use 60 percent more water for personal needs than do those in rural areas.
Iranian civilization was built on a plateau with three centers, each fed from its distinct water sources.
One was in the east, in what are now Kerman and Sistan-Baluchistan provinces and Farah and Helmand walayahs in what is now Afghanistan, and was fed by rivers flowing from the Hindu Kush.
The other civilizational base was in the center, in Isfahan, Charmahal and Fars.
The third base was in the southwest, in Susa and parts of Mesopotamia, benefiting from the waters of the Euphrates, Tigris and a dozen rivers flowing from the Zagros range.
Many voices have been raised inside and outside Iran, warning that the very bases of one of the world's most ancient civilizations are threatened with extinction in the mid- to long-term.
The good news is that several serious studies, including a Japanese one, suggest that the foreseen demise isn't inevitable, and that new economic strategies and socio-cultural policies combined with massive investment of resources can stop and then reverse the deadly trend of desertification.
Over 25 centuries ago, the Achaemenid King Darius prayed to God to preserve Iran from two evils: lies and droughts.
Amir Taheri was the executive editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from 1972 to 1979. He has worked at or written for innumerable publications, published eleven books, and has been a columnist for Asharq Al-Awsat since 1987.
Gatestone Institute would like to thank the author for his kind permission to reprint this article in slightly different form from Asharq Al-Awsat. He graciously serves as Chairman of Gatestone Europe.
