Once again, Europe seems to have slipped into a dangerous fantasy: that engaging in polite diplomatic parleys with promises of sugar plums will tame Iran's rapacious ambitions.
France, Germany, and the United Kingdom (E3), acting as the European Troika, declared their intention to revive the long-stalled nuclear negotiations with Iran. In a joint statement, they pledged to "reopen a path toward a comprehensive, lasting, and verifiable agreement."
This is the same play we have seen before: bold headlines, carefully phrased commitments, and the faint hope that seduction can substitute for strength. Unfortunately, these gestures always carry a hidden cost. Once the diplomatic machinery is set in motion, we soon hear about sanctions relief, softening of UN mandates, and felicitous loopholes to reintegrate the Iranian regime into global markets. What begins as promise too often ends as reward for terrible behavior and a prelude to even more.
At the core of the E3's plan lies the deeply flawed assumption that Iran can be wooed into restraint through incremental "incentives." These generally consist of easing financial pressure, lifting trade restrictions, or delaying multilateral sanctions in exchange for ephemeral commitments. That path amounts to legitimizing the regime by granting it breathing room, access to resources, and a veneer of normalcy it does not merit.
When European officials talk about reopening "verifiable" safeguards or restoring frozen assets, they always seem to forget who is sitting across the table. The Iranian regime executes dissidents, imprisons journalists, traffics in terrorism, and crushes not only women's rights but also any protests against this abuse. The Iranian regime is not a pitiable, misunderstood actor in need of trust, but a malignant force that uses every opening to expand its power. Europe's diplomatic overtures risk becoming a balm for that evil — not a deterrent.
If the EU persists in re-embarking on this flawed strategy, it is important to ask: Will these feckless Western negotiators ever internalize the lessons of history? The 2015 JCPOA "nuclear deal" was hardly an abstraction — it is the blueprint for what happens when a regime gets the keys to its own treasury.
Under that deal, Iran received billions in sanctions relief, which it promptly diverted to its regional militias and proxy networks. Iran bolstered Hezbollah, sharpened its militias in Iraq and Syria, and channeled arms to Hamas. Those are the forces that play a central role in destabilizing the region.
President Barack Obama's and President Joe Biden's windfalls only empowered the networks that produced the October 7, 2023 Hamas massacre. Are European leaders so eager to believe that Iran will behave differently this time? Or are they so eager for money, photo-ops and short-term press releases from Iran that they do not care?
The ghosts of the 1930s should haunt any serious diplomat — when appeasement toward Nazi Germany only propelled Hitler further. Sadly, Europe appears to be pursuing the worst lessons of appeasement: the dangerous illusion is that you can temper a ravenous aggressor by conciliation, weakness and generosity. The aggressor immediately sees that the best route for him is to demand more. The cycle becomes self-reinforcing.
The strategy is familiar: in every case, the aggressor uses any breathing space to strengthen his hand. By treating the Iranian regime as a legitimate negotiating partner — and by discounting the moral and strategic gulf that separates it from liberal democracies — Europe is bankrolling the terrorism industry.
Instead, Europe needs to deepen financial sanctions on Iran, choke off its energy revenue flows, crack down on its banking access, and tighten restrictions on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its global networks.
Iran's economy is currently under severe pressure, and internal dissatisfaction simmers. The regime is reeling. This is when the West should increase pressure, not suggest soft diplomacy and friendly talks. It would be a gift to the people of Iran to pressure the regime until the threats of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles disappear entirely or until the regime decides to surrender power.
Cut Iran's oil exports. Cut its diplomatic cover. Reduce its ability to spread terrorism. Do not grant it breathing room. The goal should be total dismantlement of all of Iran's nuclear capabilities — not a face-saving compromise that allows it to persist in its malign path, just under new rules that it will not adhere to anyway.
President Donald J. Trump's current posture — doubling down on sanctions, refusing immediate diplomacy until leverage is secured — should jolt Europe out of its passivity. His leadership has shown that pressure can be maintained.
Europe nevertheless seems intent on returning to its old script: talk first, pressure later – if ever. The pattern is always the same: Crisis, offers to negotiate, pressure is lifted, the regime reconstitutes, next crisis. If Europe cannot break this cycle, it will forever play the fool. The only way to end this game is to finish it once and for all. If the EU cannot summon the will to be strong when the regime is weak, then it is causing the next act of aggression.
European leaders, stop treating Iran's regime as if it were a partner. Stop giving it diplomatic cover. No further bailouts. No symbolic talks. No concessions. More pressure.
The European Troika's charade must stop. Anything less just prolongs the threat.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, is a political scientist, Harvard-educated analyst, and board member of Harvard International Review. He has authored several books on the US foreign policy. He can be reached at dr.rafizadeh@post.harvard.edu
