Attempts by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to play a key role in plans to form an "international security force" for Gaza pose a serious threat to US President Donald J. Trump's efforts to disarm Hamas terrorists and augur poorly for his efforts to bring peace to the Middle East.
A key requirement of Trump's 20-point plan to end the Gaza conflict is for Hamas to disarm and end its malign control of the Gaza Strip. Only then will negotiations begin on finding a lasting ceasefire agreement and rebuilding the enclave for an enduring peace after two years of brutal conflict.
Trump has made clear his commitment to removing Hamas from Gaza even if, as is currently the case, the Islamist terror group shows no sign of complying with the terms of Trump's peace plan.
In comments made soon after the first stage of the US-sponsored ceasefire took hold in Gaza, Trump threatened to disarm Hamas "violently" if it did not fully comply with his terms. If Hamas failed to disarm within "a reasonable period of time" then "we will disarm them", the president warned.
Yet, rather than showing any inclination to relinquish its grip over Gaza, Hamas has instead used the ceasefire to reassert its control over parts of Gaza by deploying thousands of its "security" officials and carrying out summary executions in public of its political opponents.
Now, with both Turkey and Qatar, two countries that support Hamas's hardline Islamist agenda, seeking to play a more prominent role in Gaza's future development, the prospect of persuading Hamas to disarm and relinquish control appears even more remote.
As part of Trump's attempts to end hostilities in Gaza, he is planning to create a multinational force drawn from a number of Muslim countries, to maintain order in the area while negotiations on its future take place.
While details on how the force will be expected to operate in Gaza remain vague, there is a general expectation that one of its duties will be to disarm terrorist groups such as Hamas.
Speaking in Israel last month, US Vice President JD Vance said that the force would "take the lead on disarming Hamas", although he conceded that the task of disarming Hamas was "going to take some time and it's going to depend a lot on the composition of that force."
King Abdullah II of Jordan tried to warn Trump, also at the end of October:
"[W]e hope that it is peacekeeping, because if it's peace enforcing, nobody will want to touch that.... If we're running around Gaza on patrol with weapons, that's not a situation that any country would like to get involved in."
Bringing Hamas's two-decade-long rule over Gaza is deemed vital to securing the its long-term stability. While significantly enhancing Israel's security along its southern border, it would liberate Palestinian civilians from the Islamist terror group's oppressive rule.
Trump's radical plan to transform Gaza's political landscape -- especially his focus on disarming Hamas -- could come unstuck, though, if pro-Hamas states such as Turkey and Qatar have any involvement in the territory's future administration.
Erdogan has already declared his intention to be a key player in Gaza's future development by offering to commit 2,000 Turkish troops to Trump's proposed stabilisation force, an offer that has been unequivocally rejected by Israel. Responding to Ankara's offer, a spokesman for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated explicitly, "There will be no Turkish boots on the ground."
Israel's firm opposition to the presence of Turkish troops in Gaza stems from the dramatic deterioration in relations between Jerusalem and Ankara since Hamas carried out the October 7, 2023 invasion of Israel. Erdogan responded by praising Hamas, suspending trade with Israel, closing Turkish airspace to Israeli planes.
Erdogan, who is trying to replace Qatar as Hamas's main intermediary in negotiations with the US, has accused Israel of crimes against humanity and recently issued arrest warrants for 37 Israeli officials -- including Netanyahu -- alleging "genocide" in Gaza.
Erdogan has long stated that "Jerusalem is our city." As recently as last month, Erdogan was talking with his officials about attacking Israel.
"No one can save it [Israel] now..." Erdogan said on October 6.
"It must be disciplined with war... War and power should make Israel kneel... However 'extreme' it looks, a Turkey-Israel war will absolutely happen... Israel's life is over.... Jerusalem will be saved! Israel will have no choice but to kneel in front of Turkey. This is the only way for it to live.... In the mind of the man who opened Hagia Sophia after 86 years, there is a settled plan to liberate Jerusalem and settle the account of 1917."
Despite vehement Israeli objections, Erdogan is hoping that his good relations with Trump will persuade the US president to dismiss Israel's concerns and allow Turkey to play a central role in future talks on Gaza's future.
If Trump allows this to happen, it could seriously undermine his attempts to disarm Hamas and achieve peace. Rather than ending the terrorist group's involvement in Gaza, Ankara is calling for Hamas to work together with the Palestinian Authority to form a new administration for the territory.
Erdogan has also been seeking F-35 jets from the United States. For what might he be intending to use them? Congress has wisely prohibited the deal so long as Turkey possesses Russia's S-400 air and missile defence system.
Erdogan's determination to play a prominent role in discussions on Gaza's future -- including Trump's plan for creating a multinational stabilisation force -- was very much in evidence at a summit of Muslim leaders he hosted in Istanbul this month. The summit was attended by representatives from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Pakistan and Indonesia, which have indicated a willingness to support the Gaza force.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told reporters after the conference that the Turks wanted to see a "swift internal Palestinian reconciliation" between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA), headed by Mahmoud Abbas. Fidan argued that such reconciliation would "enhance Palestine's representation in the international community."
Turkey's desire for Hamas to be reconciled with the PA completely contradicts a key requirement of Trump's peace plan, which demands that the terror group not only disarms, but ends its political involvement in Gaza. If implemented, any Turkish involvement in Trump's efforts to end the Gaza conflict would simply offer Hamas a lifeline, one that would enable it to maintain its terrorist agenda.
The Trump administration may be tempted to believe that Turkey's involvement in the issue is crucial if a settlement in Gaza is to be reached. The administration must also understand, however, that any Turkish involvement will completely undermine Trump's stated objective of forcing the terrorist organisation to disarm if there is to be any hope of a lasting peace in the Middle East.
Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
