The most vital fact that US President Donald J. Trump needs to take on board is that Russian President Vladimir Putin has no earthly chance of winning his war in Ukraine -- unless, that is, Trump gifts the Russian despot a victory.
China will be among a collection of hostile states, which also includes Iran and North Korea, that will be taking a close interest in the outcome of the diplomatic initiative Trump began with Putin following their face-to-face meeting in Alaska earlier this month, to end the Ukraine conflict.
Terrorist groups, ranging from Hamas in Gaza, to Hezbollah in Lebanon, to the remnants of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, will similarly be keeping a watchful eye on the type of deal that is forthcoming.
This is why it is vital that Washington, rather than making unpalatable concessions to Moscow such as agreeing to land swaps, should use the ongoing talks to force through a deal that punishes Russia for attacking Ukraine, rather than rewarding it.
Prior to the Alaska talks, Trump indicated he was serious about imposing punitive tariffs against countries, such as China and India, which continue trading with Russia despite international sanctions. This trade is providing Russia with a vital economic lifeline to continue financing its war in Ukraine. To underline his seriousness, Trump added an extra 25 percent tariff against India shortly before his meeting with Putin.
While no final details of a lasting peace plan to end a conflict that has already lasted for three-and-a-half years have been forthcoming, worrying indications have already emerged that the Trump administration is giving serious consideration to a settlement that would ultimately reward Putin for launching his so-called "special military operation" to seize control of Ukraine in February 2022.
Trump himself has given a clear indication that some form of land-swap arrangement will be necessary to persuade both Russia and Ukraine to end hostilities, and there are concerns that the White House is prepared to grant Moscow control over some of Ukraine's most strategic and resource-rich regions.
Such a deal would not only represent a complete betrayal of the Ukrainian people, who have fought heroically to defend their country from Russian aggression. It would completely undermine the credibility of the Western alliance to defend its interests in the face of unprovoked acts of aggression in Europe.
Land swaps would also send a clear signal to other autocratic regimes such as China, as well as numerous terrorist organisations, that the US has no interest in confronting acts of military aggression aimed at destabilising the established global order, which decrees that the borders of all internationally-recognised states are inviolate.
By far the most likely consequence of Trump agreeing to any sell-out over Ukraine would be to encourage China's Communist rulers to launch their long-anticipated plan to invade the democratic territory of Taiwan, a move that runs the risk of provoking a major conflict in the Indo-Pacific.
The important factor that Trump needs to take on board as he weighs up his options post the Alaska summit is the impact a flawed Ukraine deal will have on terrorist groups such as Hamas. Long before Trump's meeting with Putin, Hamas's terrorist leadership had already announced it had no intention of ending the war in Gaza.
If Trump agrees to a flawed deal with Putin over Ukraine, therefore, it would simply encourage Hamas and other Islamist groups, such as Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad, that they have nothing to fear from the Trump administration if they persist with their long-standing campaign to destroy Israel.
These are not the only important considerations that need to be taken into account as Trump maintains his diplomatic effort to end the Ukraine conflict.
For all the considerable military effort Russia has invested in trying to achieve a major breakthrough in Ukraine, this year's Russian summer offensive has achieved little, with the Ukrainian forces demonstrating once again their ability to defend themselves against their far larger adversary.
Apart from failing miserably to achieve his objectives in Ukraine, Putin has also suffered the humiliation of watching his efforts to expand his influence in the Middle East collapse in ruins.
Moscow's attempts to deepen its strategic partnership with Damascus by backing Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad before his ouster now lie in ruins after Islamist rebels with close ties to al-Qaeda seized control of the country at the end of last year, thereby jeopardising the future of Russia's two key military bases in Tartus and Latakia.
Similarly, Putin's efforts to develop a strategic partnership with Iran lie in tatters after Moscow failed to come to Tehran's aid during its recent military confrontation with Israel and the US, which also exposed the inadequacy of Russia's much-vaunted air-defence systems, which failed to protect Iran's key nuclear sites.
Add to these setbacks the desperate state of the Russian economy, which is under enormous pressure as a result of international sanctions, and it is clear that Trump has a very strong hand to play with Putin, who, for all his public bravado, is desperate for the war in Ukraine to end.
If Trump is serious about establishing his credentials as a peace-maker, then he needs to frame a peace deal for Ukraine that deters further acts of military aggression, rather than encouraging them.
If Trump really wants to end the war in Ukraine and achieve lasting peace, then he should consider reviving his threat to impose punitive sanctions against countries that continue trading with Russia, as well as providing Ukraine immediately with offensive weapons, rather than just defensive ones. Every day of delay is simply being used by Putin to kill more Ukrainian civilians and gain more territory.
Such a move would not only end Putin's ability to fund his "special military operation" in Ukraine. It would send a clear signal to other autocratic regimes like China, as well as terrorist groups, that the Trump administration will confront acts of aggression, and never reward them.
Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
