The reimposition of UN "snapback" sanctions on Iran is a welcome development, but, alas, insufficient. For years, Tehran has operated with relative impunity, ignoring restrictions and continuing to build its nuclear and ballistic missile programs while funding proxy terrorist groups across the Middle East. The renewal of these sanctions signals a recognition that the Iranian regime remains one of the gravest threats to regional stability and international security.
While the sanctions are symbolically important, however, on their own they are not nearly enough. Just putting sanctions on paper does not set back Iran; what truly weakens it is cutting off its most vital revenue stream: oil. As long as the Iranian regime finds avenues to export oil, it will continue to survive and expand its power.
Oil is the Iranian regime's lifeblood, the artery that sustains its power structure and keeps its oppressive machinery running. Around 80 percent of the regime's revenue comes from oil sales. Iran's then President Hassan Rouhani candidly admitted years ago that the regime could not survive without oil exports. The billions of dollars generated from oil, however, do not flow into the hands of ordinary Iranians, who continue to face economic decline, high inflation, and high unemployment. Instead, oil revenues are funneled into the coffers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), its elite Quds Force, and the sprawling web of proxy groups such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas and militias in Iraq. These groups extend Iran's reach and destabilize the region, launching attacks on US allies and threatening global shipping routes. Oil money is not just revenue; it is the fuel for Tehran's repression at home and aggression abroad.
Iran continues to channel its oil revenues into its nuclear weapons program and into expanding its arsenal of ballistic missiles and attack drones. The nuclear program requires a steady flow of capital to acquire technology, procure materials on black markets, and pay scientists and engineers. Ballistic missile development and production are also enormously expensive undertakings. Without oil exports, the regime would be forced to prioritize survival over expansion, significantly slowing or even halting the progress of its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs. Every barrel of oil exported is another dollar available to enrich uranium, build missile silos, or finance terror operations abroad. This is why limiting Iran's oil exports is not just about economics — it is about preventing Iran from becoming an even greater global security threat.
At the heart of the problem is Iran's largest oil export market: China. Nearly four-fifths of Iran's exported oil ends up in China. Beijing has become the lifeline that keeps Tehran afloat despite international sanctions. Iranian officials have openly admitted that even if UN sanctions are reactivated, oil exports to China would continue. Iran's oil minister himself declared that sanctions would not stop Tehran from selling to China. This admission underscores the futility of UN sanctions that fail to target buyers. As long as Beijing continues to purchase Iranian oil, Tehran will find ways to skirt restrictions and funnel money into its destructive activities. In other words, the sanctions regime collapses without firm and coordinated pressure on Beijing.
The solution lies in replicating the strategy that worked once before. During President Donald Trump's first term, his administration significantly reduced Iran's oil exports through a "maximum pressure" campaign. By targeting not only Tehran but also buyers, shippers and insurers, Washington made it extremely difficult and risky to purchase Iranian oil. This campaign forced Iranian oil exports down to historic lows, depriving the regime of billions in revenue.
The key is not only sanctioning Iran, but also enforcing consequences against those who enable its oil exports. That means sanctioning third-party entities, shipping companies, and refineries that knowingly violate sanctions. China, as the largest buyer of Iran's oil, must face the full weight of international scrutiny and penalties if it continues to bankroll the Iranian regime.
The United States cannot and should not act alone in this effort. The European Union needs to take a much stronger stance as well. Europe should halt all trade with Tehran, close Iranian embassies, and expel regime diplomats who often double as intelligence operatives. The EU should also support cases against China at the UN and align itself with Washington in holding Beijing accountable for sanctions violations.
A united front of the United States and the EU would send a powerful message to China: buying Iranian oil is not merely a commercial transaction but a direct violation of international law and a threat to global peace. Beijing can import oil from alternative sources such as Saudi Arabia, the US, Iraq and the UAE, among others. Its continued purchase of Iranian oil is a political choice, not an economic necessity. Raising the costs of that choice would force China to reconsider.
Another critical step is to address Iran's tactics of evading sanctions through the art of disguising its oil shipments by ship-to-ship transfers, re-flagging vessels, falsifying cargo documents, and mixing crude oil with other shipments to obscure its origin. The West needs to respond with more aggressive maritime monitoring, increased cooperation among customs agencies, and enforcement mechanisms that penalize ports, refineries and companies that knowingly accept disguised Iranian oil. By targeting not just the buyers but also the enablers — the insurers, middlemen and financial institutions — sanctions can close the loopholes that Iran exploits to sustain its oil trade.
Finally, the argument comes down to one undeniable fact: as Iran continues to export oil, its regime will continue to survive and expand its power. Cutting off oil revenues does more than weaken Tehran financially; it empowers the Iranian people. By depriving the regime of its resources, it creates opportunities for domestic dissent and protest movements to challenge the ruling elite. The Iranian people have repeatedly risen up against their government, only to be crushed by the IRGC and its vast security apparatus, funded by oil money. Without that revenue, the regime would be far less capable of suppressing its population and exporting instability abroad.
Without oil export revenues, Iran's regime weakens, its proxies wither, and its nuclear weapons and missile programs stall. With oil export revenues, all sanctions and negotiations become empty gestures. If the West is serious about trying to "reform" the Iranian regime, it must focus on cutting off the oil that feeds it. This means coordinated US and EU pressure, real accountability for China, and relentless enforcement of sanctions against buyers and middlemen.
"Reforming" the Iranian regime -- enticing them into the Abraham Accords under Trump's magnificent vision of "peace and prosperity" -- may not be possible. Iran's rulers appear to have an explicit agenda, which, as by now should be clear, does not involve either prosperity or peace for its citizens. If the US is intent on making only Iran's ruling class rich and prosperous, it is consigning the Iranian people to misery in perpetuity. One hopes that the US would not be as cruel as that.
Only if Iran is seriously weakened will the Iranian people have a real chance to taste the freedom that so many in the West cavalierly take for granted, and only then will the world see genuine peace and security in the Middle East.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, is a political scientist, Harvard-educated analyst, and board member of Harvard International Review. He has authored several books on the US foreign policy. He can be reached at dr.rafizadeh@post.harvard.edu
