The Iranian regime, long marked by hostility and defiance toward the United States and its allies, is suddenly portraying itself as eager to talk.
Reports confirm that Tehran is now negotiating with the EU3 — France, the United Kingdom and Germany — and has even stated that it is open to discussions with the United States. This is the same regime that has built its entire political identity around hatred for America, branding the U.S. the "Great Satan" and chanting "Death to America" at every major gathering. It is the same ruling elite that has repeatedly vowed to export its Islamist revolution far beyond the Middle East, aiming especially to destabilize and infiltrate Western nations. The question then becomes: why would such a fanatical and ideologically rigid regime suddenly want to sit at the table with its sworn enemies?
The answer is not goodwill, reform or a sudden change of heart. It is weakness. The reality is that Iran has been dealt a series of crushing blows in recent months, and now a drought.
U.S. and Israeli strikes severely damaged Iran's nuclear program — damage so extensive that even Iranian officials admit that key infrastructure has been disrupted. Facilities, centrifuges and stockpiles have been degraded or destroyed. Some of Iran's leading scientists and engineers, who were driving its nuclear weapons effort, have been eliminated. This is not the position of strength from which Iran prefers to negotiate. This is the position of a regime struggling to keep its most prized military project afloat.
In such a position, the leadership in Tehran is willing to agree to almost any terms if it means securing breathing space, lifting sanctions and accessing funds to rebuild. They know that negotiations can give them exactly what they need: relief from "maximum pressure" without actually abandoning their nuclear ambitions. As history has shown, they can sign agreements, pocket the benefits, and secretly continue advancing toward a nuclear weapon, just as they did after the 2015 JCPOA "nuclear deal."
Another critical factor is the Iran's military and political vulnerability after the recent 12-day war. That adventure inflicted enormous costs on Iran's military assets, its regional network of proxies, and even its core leadership. Key facilities were struck. Commanders and operatives were killed. The regime emerged battered. For the first time in years, the ruling elite must have felt that if another wave of strikes were unleashed, their survival could be at stake. That is why Tehran is now putting on a diplomatic smile and speaking of negotiating. It is a calculated survival strategy. By appearing cooperative, they hope to buy time to repair their military capabilities, rebuild their networks, and, once they are in a stronger position, exact revenge. Their goal is not to make peace — it is to live to continue fighting.
On the economic front, the picture is equally dire for the regime. Iran's economy is collapsing under the weight of U.S. sanctions, international isolation, and structural corruption. The national currency has been in freefall, eroding the savings and salaries of ordinary Iranians. The regime is desperate for hard currency and access to the global financial system. That is most likely is why they see no risk in sitting down for talks that could repair their damaged nuclear program.
A deal that results in the expiration of UN sanctions and the lifting of U.S. measures would flood the regime with money. As history has shown, this money will not go to the Iranian people — it will go to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hezbollah, Hamas and other terror groups. We have seen this movie. When the Obama administration signed the JCPOA, pallets of cash and billions of dollars in sanctions relief flowed into Tehran's coffers. The IRGC used this windfall to expand its regional influence, arm its proxies, and escalate attacks on the U.S. and its allies. From 2021 until 2025, Iran attacked more than 350 U.S assets in the Middle East.
The culmination of America's empowerment of Iran was the October 7, 2023 Hamas massacre of Israelis. When you give the Iranian regime financial relief, you are funding terrorism.
That current talks are not a two-way street; they are just a one-way gift to the Iranian regime, which is the only party that benefits. By negotiating now, the U.S. would give Iran the oxygen it needs to recover from its military losses, repair its nuclear program and rearm its proxies. In return, the U.S. gets nothing but airy empty promises and unverifiable pledges. The Iranian regime has proven time and again that once it gets what it wants, it will cheat, conceal and violate any agreement. Negotiating now would be throwing a lifeline to a drowning enemy.
The sudden eagerness of the Iranian regime to engage in nuclear talks is just a sign of deception and desperation. The worst mistake the West could make right now is to relieve the pressure at the very moment it has started to work. Just as in 2015, a deal will not defang this regime — it will recharge it. The Obama-era JCPOA nuclear agreement taught us this lesson in blood and betrayal. If we empower Iran now with talks and deals, they will simply return with greater vengeance, better weapons and more aggressive proxies.
The Iranian regime has another game in mind, and that game ends with Iran as a stronger, more dangerous enemy. This is not the moment to sit at the table. It is the moment to stand unbudgeably firm.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, is a political scientist, Harvard-educated analyst, and board member of Harvard International Review. He has authored several books on the US foreign policy. He can be reached at dr.rafizadeh@post.harvard.edu
