The Iranian regime is once again racing to acquire nuclear weapons. In doing so, it is turning to Russia and almost certainly looking toward China and North Korea for support. This is an immediate and existential threat to the United States, Israel, and the Free World.
Tehran's repeated denials are lies, masking a clear and urgent drive to obtain nuclear capability as quickly as possible.
Earlier this week at the United Nations General Assembly, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared that Iran will "never seek to build a nuclear bomb." Iran's actions, however, contradict these words. On September 26, Tehran signed a staggering $25 billion nuclear agreement with Russia to construct four nuclear power plants in southern Iran.
Officially, this deal is being presented as an energy project to expand Iran's civilian nuclear capacity and produce 5 GW of electricity. Unfortunately, given Iran's long history of deception and concealment regarding its nuclear program, it would be naïve to accept this explanation at face value.
The reactors and the infrastructure that come with these projects could easily be diverted toward dual-use technologies, laying the groundwork for enrichment or fuel-cycle capabilities that could serve a weapons program.
The timing of the agreement is also telling. It comes just months after Iran signed a 20-year strategic partnership treaty with Moscow, which includes sharing defense cooperation and nuclear technology. The trajectory is clear: Iran and Russia are deepening ties in ways that serve both their geopolitical and military objectives.
Another urgent question: What would prevent Russia from going beyond civilian cooperation and helping Iran directly in its quest for a nuclear weapon? Iran has already supplied Russia with missiles and drones for its war in Ukraine and played a vital role in sustaining Moscow's battlefield capabilities. Russia, in turn, has every reason to reward this loyalty. Whether through technology transfer or covert shipments of sensitive materials, Russia has the capacity and the incentive to assist. If Russia feels cornered by the West over Ukraine, it may see Iran's nuclear ambitions not as a liability but as a useful bargaining chip and a means to complicate U.S. and Israeli security calculations.
Iran's outreach is not limited to Russia. The regime has been increasingly strengthening ties with China and North Korea, both nuclear states with long histories of resisting Western pressure. China has consistently positioned itself as Iran's economic lifeline, buying its oil, shielding it diplomatically at the United Nations, and engaging in selective military cooperation.
North Korea, for its part, has already served as a nuclear and missile partner for rogue regimes; its clandestine networks remain an attractive option for Tehran. The sight of these regimes aligning more closely at events such as joint military parades in China points to the emergence of an authoritarian bloc that could cooperate informally on nuclear proliferation. Even if there is no formal pact, the risk of quiet exchanges of expertise, material, or designs is very real. For Iran, the shortcut to a nuclear bomb would not be to build everything from scratch, but to leverage these relationships, just as North Korea once did with Pakistan.
Iran's urgency has only grown in the wake of U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear and military sites earlier this year. Those strikes were a sobering reminder to Tehran that its ambitions are vulnerable, its facilities penetrable, and the US and Israel are willing to act militarily when intelligence points to advancing nuclear work. The regime looks at North Korea and sees a model: once Pyongyang secured a nuclear arsenal, its survival was effectively guaranteed. The Iranian regime, facing both external pressure and internal unrest, is desperate for a shield that will deter attacks and preserve the ruling system. On top of this strategic calculation is the regime's enduring ideological goal of wiping Israel off the map. For Tehran, even a single nuclear bomb would carry enormous symbolic and strategic weight.
The United States, Israel, and Europe must not underestimate this danger. The strategy should rest on two main pillars: unrelenting economic pressure and the credible threat of military action. Iran's economy remains fragile, heavily dependent on oil exports. Cutting off this revenue stream — through tighter sanctions, rigorous enforcement, and interdiction of illicit oil sales — would severely constrain the regime's ability to fund both its domestic repression and its nuclear program. At the same time, Iran must be made to believe that pursuing a nuclear weapon will invite devastating consequences. Public statements should leave no ambiguity: if intelligence shows that Iran is again advancing its nuclear program, strikes will follow. The credibility of this threat is critical: it forces Tehran to weigh the risks of moving forward.
Despite its harsh rhetoric, the regime is not immune to pressure. Beneath the surface, it is vulnerable. The Iranian population is restless, discontented with a stagnant economy, rampant corruption, and lack of freedoms. Inflation and unemployment fuel resentment, and many citizens are already embittered by the regime's prioritization of foreign adventurism over domestic welfare. A military confrontation that exposes the regime's weakness or causes significant damage could trigger unrest on a scale that the leadership fears. This is precisely why maintaining a mix of economic isolation and military deterrence is the most effective strategy: it exploits the regime's weaknesses while holding back its ambitions.
The Iranian regime is desperately seeking nuclear weapons, and turning to its authoritarian partners — Russia, China, and North Korea — to make this a reality. Iran's regime is racing against time, determined to achieve a capability that will guarantee its survival, give it leverage over its enemies, and help export its revolution. The West cannot afford complacency. Economic pressure must be tightened, the military option must remain visible, and intelligence must be vigilant. Iran's ambitions are clear. The danger is growing. What happens next will have profound consequences not only for Israel and the United States, but for the stability of the entire Free World.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, is a political scientist, Harvard-educated analyst, and board member of Harvard International Review. He has authored several books on the US foreign policy. He can be reached at dr.rafizadeh@post.harvard.edu
