There is one thing the Iranian regime needs now more than anything else — something upon which its survival may depend. That lifeline is a deal.
Precisely for that reason, at this moment of maximum pressure, President Donald J. Trump's offering Tehran an agreement — especially one that provides sanctions relief, legitimacy, or breathing room — could become the single most consequential mistake of the century.
The regime needs a deal because it needs a breath of relief. It is under pressure from several directions simultaneously. Internally, Iran has recently witnessed incessant waves of unrest, protests, and uprisings that cut across class, ethnic, and generational lines, with many Iranians calling for regime change -- despite openly being gunned in the streets.
A deal would allow the authorities to intensify repression with fewer external consequences. Security forces could move more aggressively against activists, journalists, and opposition networks, confident that diplomatic engagement would temper foreign criticism. In this sense, a deal might consolidate the regime's control internally by removing the leverage that international pressure has currently been providing to Iran's civil society.
Morally, the Iranians risking their lives to protest the system look to the outside world for solidarity. A sweeping agreement that rehabilitates the regime without addressing human rights will be perceived, not just by them but by history, as abandonment. Any deal that allows the mullahs to survive to torture their citizens another day would be looked on by both the international community and history as the pinnacle of American hypocrisy: a permanent stain on the values that the United States and the Free World purport to uphold. America's stature as the world's guarantor of freedom and humanitarian values would be demolished overnight. It would signal that geopolitical considerations outweigh aspirations for freedom and that in such a quest, America could no longer be counted on to be your greatest ally. Any reach for freedom or challenging authoritarian rule from within -- as seen tragically in the retreat from Afghanistan -- would from now on be seen as a fatal waste of time and the United States as basically no different from any other weak, spoiled state.
Second, the regime faces acute regional pressure. Over recent years, Iran's network of proxies — long the backbone of its regional strategy — has been weakened, degraded, or constrained. Israeli military operations have targeted Iranian assets and affiliated groups across the region, while the Trump administration's pressure campaigns have sought to disrupt funding channels and logistics. Tehran, once confident in its arc of influence stretching from Lebanon to Yemen, now confronts pushback on multiple fronts. A deal with Washington would break this isolation, reduce the risk of confrontation, and allow Iran to rebuild its regional posture under the cover of diplomacy.
Third, Iran desperately needs sanctions relief, which is what its rulers want most, right after the survival of their regime. Sanctions have battered the economy, restricted oil exports, limited access to international banking, and fueled inflation that has eroded living standards. A deal that lifts sanctions or reintegrates Iran into the global financial system would most likely unlock billions of dollars in frozen assets and enable increased oil revenues.
Such financial relief would not merely stabilize the domestic economy — it would strengthen the state apparatus. With renewed resources, the regime could better fund security forces, patronage networks and foreign operations, and restore its war machine. Groups aligned with Tehran — such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis — would receive expanded funding and weapon flows, exacerbating regional instability rather than reducing it.
A deal would also buy Iran time to rebuild and expand its military capabilities, particularly its drone and ballistic missile program — the largest in the Middle East. "Iran's drones and ballistic missiles can finish 40,000 US troops," Secretary of State Marco Rubio informed the US Senate. Tehran has long invested in drones and missiles as a deterrent and a tool of asymmetric warfare. Iran could also accelerate the transfer of missiles and missile technology to its regional proxies, multiplying the threat environment. Survival today means strength tomorrow.
Equally concerning is the nuclear dimension. Any agreement that relaxes pressure risks giving Iran the space to rebuild its nuclear capabilities. Even if Iran were not distinguished for lying and cheating under inspections, the opacity of underground facilities and covert procurement networks makes monitoring and verification extraordinarily difficult. Iran's rulers most likely have concluded that nuclear capability is essential to regime survival, so they can pursue that objective regardless of formal commitments. A deal could therefore function less as a barrier and more as a shield behind which nuclear progress continues, shortening the path to a weapon.
The Iranian leadership has learned that diplomacy can be used to outlast adversaries. The regime operates on a long timeline, measuring success not in election cycles but in decades. Having survived wars, sanctions, and internal unrest for nearly half a century, it calculates that patience can defeat even the most determined external pressure. It may therefore seek a deal not as an end in itself but as a means to wait out a particularly hostile U.S. administration, anticipating that future leaders might adopt a more accommodating approach.
Timing matters. Promising the Iranian people -- who have literally been risking everything --- that "help is on the way" only to withdraw that would be a betrayal of historic enormity. Any deal that merely stabilizes the regime without fundamentally altering its behavior will only postpone the conflict to a time when Iran is militarily stronger and even more difficult to defeat – not resolve the conflict. The US would simply be passing on an unspeakable horror of governance -- where the rulers are waging war on their own people -- to the next generation and, God forbid, to the one after that.
The most dangerous gift to the Iranian regime today would be the one it seeks most urgently: a deal that grants relief, resources, legitimacy, and time.
Such an agreement would empower the regime, revitalize its regional network, accelerate military development, and destroy not only internal opposition but America's and Trump's credibility worldwide
Conversely, if Trump would just do what he promised -- "Help is on the way" -- his place in history, as one of the greatest leaders for freedom, as in tearing down the Berlin Wall, would be forever assured. It would place him forever in a league with George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Winston Churchill and Ronald Reagan. Let us hope he will join these winners and Make Persia Great Again.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, is a political scientist, Harvard-educated analyst, and board member of Harvard International Review. He has authored several books on the US foreign policy. He can be reached at dr.rafizadeh@post.harvard.edu
